Manufacturers and distributors of retail, wholesale and mail-order products monitor product sales and usage in order to maintain proper inventory and to be able to direct marketing efforts. Product sales are monitored by collecting sales data from wholesale distributors, retail outlets and mail-order facilities and recording this sales data at a central point for evaluation. The collected sales data is analyzed to provide market condition or status reports to the manufacturers and distributors.
In the healthcare industry, millions of healthcare products are prescribed and sold worldwide each day. Prescriptions are written by doctors and filled at pharmacies, medical devices are sold at doctors' offices, hospitals, and pharmacies. Individual businesses participating in various aspects of the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries generate data related to the goods sold to conform to governmental regulations, to track inventory, and track the market share of branded and generic products.
Pharmaceutical entities use data gathered from prescription drug outlets to improve their understanding of the ever-changing healthcare product marketplace. In particular, these business entities pay attention to information on the use (e.g., type of drug, dosage, number of doctors writing prescriptions per pharmacy, etc.) of specific products and product categories so that they can produce, supply and stock of such products at outlets (retailers, doctors, etc.) in a timely manner. Monitoring of healthcare markets involves sampling sales at retail outlets and transferring sales data to a central point for evaluation and analysis. Product demand estimates may be based on such analysis. Retail outlets usually cooperate in providing sales data but a significant number of retail outlets are not able to or do not elect to have sales data sampled in a form needed for analysis. As a result, it is necessary to estimate product sales of unsampled and poorly sampled individual outlets to provide marketing information.
Estimates of business sales in small areas, such as counties of a state, have been made based on known data for the state under the assumption that the relationships for the state also hold for the county. The article “Small-Area Estimation of Economic Statistics” by Cary T. Isaki, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. D, No. 4, October, 1990, pages 435-441 describes a ratio correlation (multiple regression) approach for estimating retail sales for small areas (counties) using county-to-state shares of retail sales from two successive economic censuses. While these methods provide estimates of retail sales over a relatively small county area from publicly available data, they are not adapted to estimate retail sales of individual outlets.
Estimation of physician prescribing activity has been attempted by marketing researchers based on ratio estimators and inflation factor estimators as commonly described in texts such as “Sampling Techniques” by W. G. Cochran, John Wiley, New York 1977. These methods attempt to estimate the activity in a pre-established geographic area of known dimensions by scaling up a sample of activity within the area in proportion to the level of a known auxiliary variable (i.e., ratio estimate) or in proportion to the level of sample coverage (via an inflation factor) for the entire area. Typical geographic areas encompass a number of outlets and prescribers. Such geographic-based methods do not yield estimates of each individual prescriber's activity within each individual outlet but only produce a measure of the total activity for the geography. If prescriber level estimates are desired, these methods must assume that the proportion of the total activity that is captured in the sample data (i.e., the captured proportion) of each prescriber is the same. If outlet estimates are desired, it must then be assumed that each unsampled outlet is accurately represented by the average of the sampled outlets in the geography. With these assumptions, all sample data within a stratum receive the same “scale-up” factor. These assumptions, however, are known to be false and result in biased estimates at the activity source level.
U.S. Pat. No. 5,781,893 describes systems and methods for estimating sales activity of a product at sales outlets including “sampled” outlets and “unsampled” outlets (i.e., at outlets at which sales activity data is sampled, and not sampled, respectively). Sales activity at unsampled outlets is estimated by determining the distances between each of the sampled outlets and each of the unsampled outlets and correlating sales activity data from the sampled sales outlets according to the determined distances. The sales activity of the product at the sampled outlets and the estimated sales activity of the product at the unsampled outlets are combined to obtain an estimate of sales activity at all the sales outlets. Sales activity of products prescribed by a physician at both the sampled and unsampled outlets can be estimated by correlating sales activity data for a prescribing physician at the sampled outlets. Sales information for specific products at particular outlets is estimated on a monthly or weekly basis with reference to historical use information.
Projection estimates for immediate or near term demand for prescription drugs or products, are based on historical data (e.g., pharmaceutical sales and dispensed product data) that is obtained from product outlets (e.g., dispensing pharmacies). Pharmaceutical companies may use this demand estimate(i.e. a month or week's predicted demand) to guide them to manufacture and supply stocks of the specific products to the dispensing outlets in a timely manner. If a particular outlet did not report data for a particular month, the prior art estimation methods use data previously reported by other reporting outlets to estimate the current month or week's demand. The prior art manner of data reporting in the health care industry is on a national level, but not specific to a particular drug at a particular pharmacy in a particular location.
While the prior art techniques were useful in slowly changing markets, such estimation techniques are no longer reliable or suitable for rapidly shifting market conditions in which pharmaceutical companies now operate. There is outstanding need for rapid and detailed forecasts of the demand of pharmaceutical and healthcare products in the market.
Co-assigned pending U.S. patent application Ser. No. 09/730,266 filed Dec. 5, 2005, which is incorporated by reference herein in its entirety, describes systems and methods for estimating product distribution using a product specific universe.
Further consideration is now being to improving systems and methods for forecasting market demand for products. In particular, attention is directed to improving short term or near term forecasts of product demand. Desirable systems and methods will provide accurate and reliable predictions or forecasts of the demand of a particular drug at a particular pharmacy in a particular location.